Portfolio - Political leadership analysis

How important is political leadership in shaping foreign policy?

Within the landscape of international relations, leaders play a key role in shaping the foreign policy of their respective nations. This essay aims to highlight this importance through an analysis of the leadership styles and subsequent foreign policy directions of Tony Blair and Angela Merkel. This will be done along Hermann's TAT framework (Hermann, 1999), outlining three traits: belief in ability to control events, need for power and conceptual complexity. These will show the importance of political leadership in shaping foreign policy due to differing leadership styles within the two case studies directly correlating to foreign policy decisions.

The framework is important to outline prior to analysis, leadership styles are largely built around three questions: how do leaders react to political constraints in their environment? How open are leaders to incoming information? And finally, what are the leaders’ reasons for seeking their positions? (Hermann, 1999, p. 5). These questions form the overarching basis of LTA, which when answered can give a good insight of the role leadership plays within shaping foreign policy. The answers to these questions come through the analysis of seven traits, with the three in focus during these case studies being: belief in ability to control events, need for power and conceptual complexity (Hermann, 1999, p. 10). When compared (as seen below), these three characteristics offer useful insight separating Blair and Merkel’s leadership traits, affecting subsequent foreign policy decisions and highlighting the importance of leadership.

The First trait outlined is a leader’s personal belief in their ability to control events. As seen above, Blair has a high rating in this regard. Due to this, in the context of foreign policy, leaders are likely to “challenge the constraints in their environment” (Hermann, 1999, p. 11), with Blair outlining the tendency of leaders with this characteristic to “perceive that their state is an influential political actor” (Dyson, 2006, p. 294) and therefore shape their nations foreign policy as such. Blair used this to boost European and US ties throughout his time in office (Gorton-Ash, 2007). Blair also highlighted the resistance of political constraints, through his and Bush’s willingness to bypass the UN security council in 2002 (Ames et al, 2011). In comparison, more average leaders in this trait are more willing to work within environmental constraints. Merkel, despite her support in 2003 (due to her role in opposition), has since expressed reservations towards the Iraq war in favouring a more diplomatic approach (Potts, 2016). Showing where differing styles of leadership reflected differing foreign policy standings, outlining its importance.

The second trait encapsulates a leader's need for power; it can be linked to the previous trait in how it affects a leader's tendency to challenge constraints, affecting subsequent foreign policy outcomes. The table below offers placements that can highlight the difference in FP when looked at together, Blair would be high/high, whereas Merkel sits closer to low/low.

It also reflects a leader's personal ambition. In the case of Blair, leaders high in this trait “have an increased concern that the policy output reflect their preference, rather than be a consensual group decision” (Dyson, 2006, p. 295), shown through his ignorance of the 1.5m person protest against the Iraq war (Adams, 2023). In contrast, Leaders who have average needs for power such as Merkel “can go either toward challenging the situation or toward respecting constraints, depending on the context and situation” (Kutlu et al, 2021). Outlining two differing foreign policy approaches based on leadership, one where a leader acts out of their own personal faculties, compared to one who is much more open to outside opinions and bodies, showing the role differing leaders can play within shaping foreign policy and the importance leadership brings.

The third trait, conceptual complexity (CC) outlines an individual's openness to information and nuance in policymaking direction, playing a key role in foreign policy. Leaders with a low CC score “operate with a more black and white view of events and actors” (Dyson, 2006, p. 295). Dictated within foreign policy by Blair with a “good vs evil” policy direction, epitomised though his 2003 Iraq war speech (Blair, 2003). In comparison, Chancellor Merkel is “high in CC … and thus classifies as open to information. She is subsequently expected to display high levels of belief change” (Alexander et al, 2015 p. 64), reflected in her shift in economic FP after the Eurozone crisis (Alexander et al, 2015 p. 67). This leadership trait therefore proves important in shaping foreign policy as it dictates how a leader looks at issues and therefore action taken.

To conclude, political leadership can be seen as crucial in shaping foreign policy when looked at through the lens of the TAT framework. This is due to its role in outlining key traits that affect a leader's approach to foreign policy, which, when analysed in the context of Blair and Merkel, offers valuable insights into how differing leadership styles profoundly shape foreign policy, highlighting its importance.

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Bibliography

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Potts, C. (2016, July 30). Merkel speaks; DW checks the facts. DW. https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-spoke-in-berlin-and-dw-checked-the-facts/a-19439266?utm_source=chatgpt.com