Viktor Orbán and the EU, a clash of values and the consequences

Hungary and the EU have been at odds with each other for some time now, with the main figure at the head of this discontent seeming to be Hungarian Prime minister Viktor Mihály Orbán. The major topic at the bottom of this dispute relates to Hungary’s treatment of migrants, but there is also an underlying theme of Orbán’s personal brand of politics being one that can be argued as directly clashing with EU values and directives, with him pushing a nationalist and populist directive. This will act as a brief overview of the man himself, the EU response and a look over the horizon at the 2026 Hungarian prime ministerial election.

Viktor Orbán

Who is Orbán? As Hungary’s longest-serving Prime minister (1998-2001; 2010-Present) and leader of the Fidesz party, he holds great power. However judgments on his leadership are not as pleasant as domestic polling suggests; namely issues surrounding press freedom have been a large criticism coinciding with his reign (Reporters Without Borders 2023 press freedom index ranks Hungary 72nd on its global press freedom scale, second worst only to Greece in the EU). 

Orbán uses a style of politics heavily reliant on an underlying nationalist sentiment within his campaigning, known for maintaining this through a high number of rallies and speeches, a largely populist approach to politics. It is these nationalist sentiments that form the crux of the issues pertaining to the EU, with a quote from a 2014 speech proving useful when analysing how he looks at and approaches the EU’s attempts to enforce policy decisions upon his government “those who do not face up to arguments and do not stand up for themselves are pushovers and losers, and are not qualified to [lead] their own nations”. This idea of self determination to preserve the Hungarian nation’s personal interests clashes with the EU’s supranational approach, culminating in the current issues. 

The area Orbán is most critical of within the EU is the European commission, publicly voicing his concern both over migration, as well as in relation to the EU asking for additional funds for Ukraine, in response calling them “Brussels money devourers”. He has also publicly compared the EU to the soviet union in recent rallies. 

EU Response

In response to this, the European Court of Justice issued a €200m fine for failing to follow immigration policy, rising to €360m due to consistent failure to pay. This move was heavily criticised by Orbán and Hungary is still yet to pay. This has caused issues relating to the blocking of development funding. There are also other issues with EU relations linking to Hungary's exclusion from the Erasmus programme (university funding and exchange programmes), of which 20,000 students were involved and benefited from in 2021. In total, Billions worth of funding is left in limbo, while Hungary disputes the myriad of issues it is faced with. 

The head of the European Commission has also limited Hungary’s role within the commission by excluding the Hungarian representative Olivér Várhelyi from the head roles of her commission, giving him a small role and little influence. 

Orbán has also faced criticisms from many member states for his decision to meet with Putin after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, something he defended as a diplomatic endeavour in an interview with Paul Ronzheimer, seeing his role to  be that of attempting to push peace talks while Hungary hold the presidency of the council of the EU. 

This blocking of EU funding will definitely have a reasonable economic impact on Hungary, as seen in the graphic below, Hungary ranked as the 3rd highest net beneficiary from the EU in 2021, gaining around €4.2 bn more from the EU than it put in. COVID recovery support from the NGEU plan is also a sizable amount of funding that will be sorely missed as Hungary looks to grow their economy. 

Will this have any effect on the 2026 Hungarian Election?

Despite a massively pro-European public, it is unlikely that this will have a huge effect on the results. Orbán’s party Fidesz maintains a largely clear lead in the polls (see below) and this combined with a restrained press will mean he faces little real opposition, although trends still show a reasonable shrink in the gap when compared to previous years. 

It seems that largely Orbán is attempting to use the EU as a boogeyman overarching figure undermining national values in order to have ammunition with which to blame away economic and social issues prior to election time, having even recently compared them to the Soviet Union. Although in his own view he is just protecting national sovereignty, offering a wide range of viewpoints with which to see this issue.