Endogenous factors in the buildup to the 2014 start of the Russia-Ukraine war

Recently, I was asked to research the 2014 Russian incursion of Crimea for a podcast we are making in class. I thought it would be helpful to write a short piece reflecting the information I’ve found. This serves as both a good addition to the website and a way of condensing the info. Here’s a small breakdown of the endogenous (internal) factors leading up to Russia’s decision to start a war in Ukraine in 2014 with the taking of Crimea, prior to the full-scale invasion in 2022.

The main event that set many of these internal factors in motion was Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to postpone preparations to join the EU, bowing to Russian pressure and sparking dismay among Ukrainians. This triggered the Euromaidan protests, also known as the “Revolution of Dignity,” ousting Yanukovych from office and creating a power vacuum in Ukraine, which allowed Russia the opportunity to take Crimea. Whether this move was pre planned by Russia or not is open to interpretation, with two main theories presented by political scientist Daniel Treisman: “First, annexation plans had been prepared well in advance, and the unrest surrounding the 2013–14 ‘Revolution of Dignity’ provided a welcome pretext to act. Second, the decision was an impulsive one, ‘hastily conceived’ as a response to the ouster of Yanukovych” (Treisman, 2016).

This offers a basic overview. More depth emerges when we look into the key leaders involved, namely Putin and Yanukovych, as well as the foreign policy direction of both nations leading up to the conflict.

Putin - President of Russia

It can be argued that Putin felt threatened by Ukraine’s movements toward the Western world, echoing John Mearsheimer’s argument that Russia felt compelled to react to efforts to turn Ukraine into a Western stronghold, eventually bringing a hostile military alliance to its borders. Putin also had a personal agenda regarding Crimea, portraying himself in speeches as a protector of “Crimean sovereignty.”

Viktor Yanukovych - President of Ukraine

Ranked as the least popular president in Ukraine’s independent history, Yanukovych’s pro-Russian tendencies strongly influenced his policies, as we will see when we look at foreign policy decisions. His presidency coincided with increased corruption and a decline in press freedoms, ending abruptly when he was ousted and fled to Russia amid massive protests.

Foreign Policy Factors - Balancing Pro-Russian Interests and EU Aspirations

The foreign policy direction of both nations played a crucial role in the eventual decision of Ukraine to drop out of negotiations to join the EU and instead join a trade agreement with Russia. This decision sparked tensions and protests, as Ukraine’s parliament had previously voted overwhelmingly in favor of joining the EU.

Essentially, Russia pressured Ukraine into its trade agreement by appealing to Yanukovych’s pro-Russian sympathies while also offering more favourable terms. This demonstrates Russia’s anti-Western foreign policy stance, motivated by Putin’s fears of the West.

Throughout this time, Ukraine faced a difficult foreign policy choice: “By the end of 2013, amidst a severe recession, the Ukrainian government was faced with a fundamental decision between Putin’s trade union and an association agreement offered by the European Union.” Ukraine essentially had to make a choice.

Ultimately, this boiled over after the U-turn on joining the EU, a foreign policy decision that sparked protests and ignited a long-term conflict with no clear end in sight.